6
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)
- Equity
- US
- Basic Materials
RISK
RETURN
Key risk factors
Strong trading liquidity
Low price volatility
Resilient to price shocks
Key return factors
Very strong margins and returns
Strong growth
Decent dividends
Company profileCaterpillar Inc. manufactures and sells construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, and industrial gas turbines worldwide. Its Construction Industries segment offers asphalt pavers, backhoe loaders, compactors, cold planers, compact track and multi-terrain loaders, excavators, motorgraders, pipelayers, road reclaimers, site prep tractors, skid steer loaders, telehandlers, and utility vehicles; mini, small, medium, and large excavators; compact, small, and medium wheel loaders; track-type tractors and loaders; and wheel excavators. The Resource Industries segment provides electric rope shovels, draglines, hydraulic shovels, rotary drills, hard rock vehicles, track-type tractors, mining trucks, longwall miners, wheel loaders, off-highway trucks, articulated trucks, wheel tractor scrapers, wheel dozers, fleet management, landfill compactors, soil compactors, machinery components, autonomous ready vehicles and solutions, select work tools, and safety services and mining performance solutions. The Energy & Transportation segment offers reciprocating engines, generator sets, integrated systems and solutions, turbines and turbine-related services, remanufactured reciprocating engines and components, centrifugal gas compressors, diesel-electric locomotives and components, and other rail-related products and services for marine, oil and gas, industrial, and electric power generation sectors. The company's Financial Products segment provides operating and finance leases, installment sale contracts, working capital loans, and wholesale financing plans; and insurance and risk management products for vehicles, power generation facilities, and marine vessels. The All Other operating segment manufactures filters and fluids, undercarriage, ground engaging tools, etc. The company was formerly known as Caterpillar Tractor Co. and changed its name to Caterpillar Inc. in 1986. The company was founded in 1925 and is headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois.
Valuation: Slightly overvalued
Multiple
TTM
NTM
P/E
15.30
16.30
PEG
2.10
-
P/B
9.80
6.10
P/S
2.50
2.60
P/FCF
16.60
22.30
EV/EBITDA
12.60
14.90
Based on key historical and expected multiples, the stock is slightly overvalued relative to its peers. Specifically, the stock is fairly valued on P/E, neutral on EV/EBITDA, and reasonably priced on P/FCF.
Performance: Decent
The stock's performance has been mixed in the past six months, with growth following a decline. There is no clear price trend compared to its global peers from the same sector and industry (as shown above). The stock has outperformed this peer group by 42ppts over past six months and grown 5ppts slower in the past month. This is largely true for peers from the same country and sector. With respect to the stock's valuation against its peers, its overall price performance is 'fair'.
Analyst view: Neutral
The average target price is 322 and suggests 8% downside potential. Usually, this means a SELL recommendation among investment firms, or a recommendation to decrease one's position in this instrument in the next 12 months. The most optimistic analyst has a target price of 440.0. This translates into 26% upside potential in the best case. On the other hand, the most pessimistic analyst has a target price of 175.0. This is equivalent to 50% downside potential in the worst case.
Profitability: Very strong
RoE
Caterpillar Inc. reported a return on equity (RoE) of 60.6% in the last 12 months, up from 58.5% in FY23. The market consensus projects an RoE of 40.3% in FY24, again ahead of its peers.
RoA
Another important profitability metric, return on assets (RoA), amounted to 13.1% in the last 12 months, an increase from 12.2% in FY23. The market analysts predict that RoA will be 9.0% in FY24, again stronger than its peers.
RoCE
In the last 12 months, the return on capital employed (RoCE) grew to 21.6%, above the peers. The consensus estimate for FY24 for RoCE is 19.6%, again ahead of the peers.
Net margin
EBITDA margin
Historically, CAT has reported strong net margins compared to its global peers. Specifically, in the last 12 months, this metric equalled 16.8%, a growth from 15.4% in FY23. The company has reported average EBITDA margins compared to its global peers in recent years. EBITDA margin amounted to 24.2% in the last 12 months, up from 23.1% in FY23.
RoIC / WACC = 2.4(strong value creation)
The ratio of return on invested capital (RoIC) to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) has been 2.4 in the past several years. This ratio implies a strong shareholder value creation. Growth: Strong
Revenue
EBITDA
EPS
Free cash flow
CAT reported revenue of USD 66 997mn in the last 12 months, down 0% from FY23. At the same time, the dynamics of cash flow, as measured by free cash flow (FCF), were drastically different. EPS grew 10% from FY23 to USD 22.27. Market expects EPS to reach USD 21.71 in FY24.Revenue growth has been moderate in the past several years (positive-to-neutral), while EBITDA has grown rapidly in recent years (positive). This all contributed to very fast EPS growth (strongly positive). Free cash flow naturally followed the growing EBITDA trend. We emphasize the highly volatile dynamics of FCF and EPS.
Dividends: Decent
Dividend paid
Dividend yield
The company has a track record of regular dividend payments. It has paid dividends in each of the past ten years. Dividend per share (DPS) has grown yearly, and there is an evident trend. In the past 12 months, the dividend yield has been moderate and on par with its peers. On average, the company pays dividends quarterly, which may appeal to investors valuing a regular income stream.
Default risk: Moderate
The risk of default is moderate. We note robust profitability, solid return on capital, and adequate interest coverage, among the positive credit factors. Among the negative credit factors and we point to slow historical revenue growth, and an unfavourable capital structure.
Volatility: Low
In normal market circumstances, CAT is not overly volatile. Put differently, without outstanding market volatility or shocking company news, the stock's price will remain relatively stable. The stock's losses on its worst days (less than 1-5% of the time) will range from very low to minimal.
Stress-test: Resilient
In highly turbulent market conditions, CAT is not overly volatile. In other words, the stock will fall less than the index in times of extreme market volatility or shocking company news. Standalone, the worst-day losses (less than 1% of the time) will likely be low.
Selling difficulty: Very low
CAT boasts very high trading liquidity. The average private investor can sell his common position in the stock immediately. Liquidity is usually very stable and remains favourable on the days with the lowest activity. The trading volume mostly stays the same even under highly turbulent market conditions.
Country risk: Very low
The institutional, legal, and compliance risks associated with the company's country are minimal. In combination with stringent business standards, shareholder rights are very highly protected.
Other risks: Negligible
No other major risks have been identified.